Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered revenue of $676M (-1% YoY, -16% QoQ), Adjusted EBITDA of $129M (19.1% margin), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.03; results were within the pre-announced EBITDA range of $120–$135M, reflecting strong operations and favorable production costs amid competitive pricing pressure .
Segment performance was mixed: TiO2 revenue rose 3% YoY but fell 13% QoQ on volume seasonality and pricing/mix headwinds; zircon revenue grew 32% YoY and edged up 1% QoQ on strong APAC execution; “Other products” dropped sharply YoY/QoQ due to non-repeating tailings sales in prior periods .
FY 2025 outlook introduced: revenue $3.0–$3.4B, Adjusted EBITDA $525–$625M, capex $375–$395M, with second-half weighting; management launched a cost improvement program targeting $125–$175M sustainable run-rate savings by end-2026 and highlighted antidumping tailwinds (EU, Brazil, India) as potential catalysts for volume and pricing recovery .
Liquidity remained solid at $578M; net leverage improved to 4.8x TTM; Board reaffirmed capital returns with a $0.125/share quarterly dividend for Q1 2025, supporting a shareholder-friendly stance amid near-term cash headwinds from mining transitions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Operational cost discipline drove ~$75M YoY production cost improvements in Q4 and Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 19.1% (+540 bps YoY), with EBITDA landing squarely in guidance (“well within the previously guided range”) .
Commercial execution strong in APAC and LatAm; zircon sales exceeded prior guidance, helping offset lagging European demand; pricing “came in as anticipated” despite competitive dynamics (CEO) .
Balance sheet and liquidity strengthened: liquidity at $578M; net leverage at 4.8x TTM; debt maturities extended to 2029/2031 and ~$10M net cash interest savings from refinancing (CFO) .

What Went Wrong

Pricing/mix and FX headwinds weighed on TiO2 and zircon, with sequential declines in TiO2 volumes (-11%) and “Other products” (-40% QoQ); competitive pressures persisted across regions .
Free cash flow (non-GAAP) was a use of cash (-$35M) in Q4, driven by working capital dynamics and elevated capex; the company guided to flat FCF at FY25 midpoint despite required mining transitions .
2025 mining cost headwind of $50–$60M as Fairbreeze (mid-2025) and East OFS (late-2025) come online, temporarily reducing the vertical-integration cost advantage in 1H25; Q1 Botlek outage adds ~$7–$10M impact .

Financial Results

Core Financials by Quarter

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$820	$804	$676
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.10	($0.16)	($0.19)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.07	($0.13)	$0.03
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$161	$143	$129
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	19.6%	17.8%	19.1%
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)	$76	$54	$48
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$10	($25)	($30)
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions, non-GAAP)	$84	($14)	($35)

Note on estimates: S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at time of analysis due to data-access limits; comparisons to Wall Street estimates are not included (values would be retrieved from S&P Global).

Segment Revenue

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
TiO2	$653	$616	$533
Zircon	$85	$74	$75
Other Products	$82	$114	$68

Q4 2024 Decomposition

Metric	YoY Δ	QoQ Δ
Revenue YoY / QoQ (%)	(1%)	(16%)
TiO2: Vol/Price/Mix/FX (%)	+4% / (1)% / 0%	(11)% / (1)% / (1)%
Zircon: Vol/Price/Mix/FX (%)	+43% / (11)% / —	+9% / (8)% / —
Adjusted EBITDA YoY / QoQ (%)	+37%	(10%)

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$74	$74	$69
Net Interest Expense ($USD Millions)	$40	$39	$40
D, D & A ($USD Millions)	$72	$70	$71
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)	$76	$101	$117
Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$680	$668	$578
Total Debt ($USD Billions)	$2.8	$2.8	$2.9
Net Debt ($USD Billions)	$2.6	$2.7	$2.7
Net Leverage (TTM Adjusted EBITDA, x)	5.2x	5.0x	4.8x

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	N/A (no prior FY guide)	$3.0–$3.4	New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	N/A	$525–$625	New
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	N/A	$375–$395	New
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	N/A	“Relatively flat” at midpoint	New
Net Cash Interest ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	N/A	~$130	New
Net Cash Taxes ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	N/A	< $10	New
Working Capital	FY 2025	N/A	Use of ~$70M to flattish	New
Cost Improvement Program	Through 2026	N/A	$125–$175M run-rate savings by end-2026	New
Dividend	Q1 2025	Prior quarterly cadence	$0.125/share declared (payable Apr 4, 2025)	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI/Technology initiatives	Ramp to targeted utilization; process improvements referenced	Expanded Automated Process Control (APC); Accenture pilot for AI-driven process insights	Increasing focus/rollout
Supply chain & integrated planning	Vertical integration benefit reiterated; inventory dynamics	IBP optimization to enhance vertical-integration impact as new mines come online	Improving structural efficiency
Tariffs/antidumping & macro	EU/India/Brazil investigations noted	Antidumping uplift seen in EU/Brazil; India definitive duties recommended; expected Q2 effective	Positive tailwind in 2H25
Product performance (TiO2, Zircon)	TiO2 up YoY; zircon up sharply; price headwinds	TiO2 +3% YoY; zircon +32% YoY; pricing/mix/FX headwinds persist	Volumes improving; pricing mixed
Regional trends	NA/LatAm met expectations; EU/APAC softer late Q3	APAC/LatAm strong; EU lagging; NA stable	Gradual improvement outside EU
Regulatory/legal (duties)	EU/India/Brazil active	India duties $500–$600/ton recommended; approval pending in ~90 days	Materializing in 2025
Capex/mining transitions	SA mining extensions; delay from 2023 to 2024	2025 headwind $50–$60M; Fairbreeze midyear; East OFS end-year	Near-term cost headwind; 2026 relief
Dividend/capital allocation	Dividend returns; leverage focus	Dividend maintained; leverage target <3x through cycle	Stable commitment

Management Commentary

“Tronox delivered fourth quarter results in line with expectations despite continued macro weakness… pricing came in as anticipated… we realized $75 million of production cost improvements compared to Q4 2023… Adjusted EBITDA of $129 million… margin of 19.1%.” — John D. Romano, CEO .
“We ended the year with total debt of $2.9 billion and net debt of $2.7 billion… net leverage ratio reduced to 4.8x… refinancings extended maturities to 2029 and 2031 and reduced net cash interest expense by $10 million.” — John Srivisal, CFO .
“We have identified $125–$175 million of sustainable run-rate cost improvements by the end of 2026… expanding APC to enhance efficiency and reliability; aligning SG&A and supply chain planning to maximize impact.” — John D. Romano, CEO .
“Within 2025, we assume improved pigment and zircon volumes; price headwinds in 1H before recovering in 2H; mining production costs up $50–$60 million during the transition.” — John D. Romano, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Pricing cadence: modest downward movement (~1–2%) in 1H25 amid competitive regions; expected upward movement in 2H25 as duties gain traction (Europe, Brazil, India) .
Cost program phasing: largely cost-driven (not volume dependent); ~$25–$30M 2025 run-rate, majority realized in 2026; APC rollout cited with tangible productivity and energy benefits .
Mining transition: $50–$60M 2025 headwind, most to reverse in 2026; Fairbreeze mid-2025 and East OFS late-2025; temporary reduction in vertical integration advantage in 1H25 .
Working capital: 2025 use of cash negative ~$70M to flattish; AR build on volume growth; inventory expected to generate cash via lower-cost production; AP relatively flat .
Near-term cadence: Q1 likely flat to slightly down vs Q4 given pricing, mining headwind, and planned Botlek outage ($7–$10M); typical seasonal employee cost resets also weigh on Q1 .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 and adjacent quarters were unavailable due to data-access limits at the time of analysis; therefore, explicit “vs. consensus” comparisons are not included (values would be retrieved from S&P Global).
Directionally, the new FY 2025 guide (back-half weighted earnings, 1H pricing headwinds, mining transition costs) suggests Street models may need to reflect a softer Q1 and stronger 2H, with contributions from antidumping duties and cost savings ramp later in the year .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution: Q4 EBITDA met guidance with significant cost improvements; margin resilience amid pricing/mix headwinds signals operational control as key to earnings durability .
2025 setup: Expect 1H softness (pricing down modestly, mining cost headwind, outage), followed by 2H recovery as duties and volumes improve and cost initiatives ramp; timing is a critical modeling lever .
Structural efficiency: The $125–$175M cost program (APC, SG&A alignment, IBP optimization) is a multi-year earnings tailwind; early 2025 capture is modest, with majority in 2026 .
Antidumping catalysts: India duties recommended ($500–$600/ton) with high approval confidence; EU/Brazil already contributing; watch for volume share recovery vs Chinese supply in affected regions .
Cash and leverage: Liquidity remains robust; net leverage improved to 4.8x; dividend maintained at $0.125/share, but near-term FCF is guided to flat at midpoint given capex and working capital needs .
Segment mix: Zircon strength continues; TiO2 volumes seasonally lower in Q4 but poised to improve with 2H pricing recovery; “Other products” will be lower absent non-repeating tailings sales .
Monitoring list: Pricing announcements in EU/APAC, India duty implementation, mining ramp milestones (Fairbreeze/East OFS), APC rollout pace, working capital conversion, and dividend cadence .

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary